According to a recent national poll conducted by Emerson College, in a hypothetical three-way race for the presidency, former President Donald Trump is leading President Joe Biden and Green Party candidate Cornell West. The poll, known for its accuracy, shows that 42% of registered voters would support Trump in this scenario, slightly ahead of Biden at 41%. West receives 5% of respondents’ support, leaving 13% undecided.
In a head-to-head matchup, Trump holds a narrow lead of 0.7 percentage points over Biden (44% vs. 44%), implying that they are virtually tied. However, an interesting twist in the poll introduces pop superstar Taylor Swift into the equation. The results reveal that Trump’s support base appears to be more steadfast than Biden’s. While Trump maintains his 42% share, Biden’s support drops to 39% when Swift enters the race with 8% popularity. West fares less favorably with 8% support.
The poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters, including 465 likely Republican primary voters. The data was gathered between August 16-17, with a credibility interval of plus or minus three percent.
Shifting our focus to the Republican presidential primary, Trump retains a significant lead with 56% support. However, former Gov. Ron DeSantis has experienced a decline of 11 points since June 20, when he held 21% support. DeSantis now finds himself tied at 10% with entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, who has gained eight points since June. Notably, Ramaswamy has managed to attract the base of postgraduate-degree-holding supporters that DeSantis previously held. In June, that base made up 38% of DeSantis’s support, but in August, it decreased to 14%. Ramaswamy now enjoys 17% support among this group, while 32% still favor Trump.
Other contenders in the Republican primary include former Vice President Mike Pence and former Gov. Chris Christie, both at 3%, former Gov. Nikki Haley and Sen. Tim Scott tied at 2%, and conservative radio host Larry Elder and former Gov. Asa Hutchinson at 1%. More than 10% of respondents remain undecided.