According to a recent survey conducted by The Economist/YouGov, independent voters are showing a leaning towards former President Donald Trump over current President Joe Biden in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup for the 2024 general election. The survey asked respondents to choose between Biden and Trump, with both candidates receiving equal support at 39 percent. Additionally, nine percent stated they would not vote, seven percent chose “other,” and five percent remained undecided. However, among registered voters, Biden holds a three-point advantage.
Notably, a majority of Republicans (83 percent) expressed support for Trump, while a similar majority of Democrats (86 percent) favored Biden. Interestingly, Trump holds an advantage among independent voters, with 36 percent indicating their support for him, while Biden trails behind with 26 percent. Among independents, 17 percent stated they would not vote, 11 percent chose “other,” and nine percent remained uncertain.
When respondents were asked about their predictions for the outcome of the presidential election, regardless of personal preference, 39 percent expressed their belief that Trump would win, compared to 36 percent who believed Biden would be victorious. A quarter of respondents remained unsure. Among registered voters, Biden maintained a two-point advantage.
Confidence in their respective candidates’ chances of winning was similar among Democrats and Republicans, with 72 percent of Democrats believing in Biden’s victory and 73 percent of Republicans favoring Trump. Independents, once again, leaned toward Trump, with 40 percent stating their belief that the former president would win, while 26 percent believed Biden would be the victor. Thirty-five percent of independents remained undecided.
This survey, conducted among 1,500 U.S. adult citizens from May 27-31, 2023, follows a previous poll by The Washington Post and ABC News, which also showed Trump leading over Biden. It is important to note that the aforementioned poll indicated a seven-point lead for Trump, with 49 percent of respondents leaning towards voting for Trump compared to 42 percent for Biden. This lead is significant and falls outside the margin of error.
Furthermore, this survey coincides with Trump’s recent campaign promise to end birthright citizenship through an executive order on his first day as president.