According to a recent survey, former President Donald Trump maintains a significant lead in the Republican presidential primary race. However, there has been a surge in support for Vivek Ramaswamy, while Ron DeSantis has experienced a decline in popularity.
The poll shows that 53% of Republican primary voters favor Trump, which is a slight decrease from the 56% recorded in June. This gives Trump a 37-point lead over DeSantis, who now has the support of 16% of voters, down from 22% in June. Notably, Ramaswamy’s popularity has doubled, with 11% of GOP primary voters favoring him—twice the support he had previously.
Other candidates such as Mike Pence, Nikki Haley, Chris Christie, Tim Scott, Doug Burgum, and others, are all receiving single-digit support.
Commenting on the findings, Daron Shaw, a Republican who conducts surveys for Fox News, emphasized that “The real story here is Ramaswamy.” He highlighted that Ramaswamy is the first candidate to challenge DeSantis and is making progress, although he still has a long way to go before posing a significant threat to Trump.
The poll also explored the second-choice preferences of Trump supporters. In this regard, DeSantis received 37% support, Ramaswamy obtained 22%, and Pence garnered 11%. These numbers represent a shift from March when DeSantis had a 52% second-choice preference among Trump supporters.
Furthermore, the poll examined Trump’s ongoing federal indictment related to his efforts to overturn the 2020 election. Among Republican primary voters who don’t believe Trump engaged in any serious wrongdoing, 75% continue to support him. Even among those who believe he acted illegally or improperly, Trump still receives 31% support.
On the Democratic side, President Joe Biden maintains a lead among Democratic primary voters, with 64% support. He is followed by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 17% and Marianne Williamson at 9%.
When looking at general election matchups, Biden holds a slight advantage over various Republican candidates, with matchups falling within or close to the margin of error. Biden’s lead can be attributed to stronger party loyalty, as he enjoys the backing of 88% of Democrats compared to 83% of Republicans supporting Trump.
Ramaswamy stands out for his appeal among independents, leading Biden by 8 points in this group. However, his support among Republicans is only at 75%, while Biden captures 87% support among Democrats.
In terms of candidate favorability, Kennedy holds the highest rating at 46%, with the majority of Republicans and independents viewing him favorably. Biden’s favorable rating is at 43%, higher than any of the Republican candidates, including Trump. Overall, both Biden and Trump have majority unfavorable ratings.
The poll suggests that the 2024 election remains competitive, with Biden holding a narrow margin. Despite Biden’s advantage, voters express doubts about his chances of winning in 2024, reflecting a sentiment similar to previous elections.